Let's Rank the Top Oscars Contenders
The Oscars are upon us! Let's do this.
The Oscars are Sunday night at 7pm: Welcome to my annual Oscars Preview! I’m ranking the Best Picture nominees — plus two movies I think should’ve been nominated (scroll to the end for those) — and making my predictions. My filled-out ballot is all the way at the end!
You know that thing where you’re the only person who is allowed to talk bad about your family? Like, I don’t even want to hear a bad word about my parents’ dog Belle, even though dealing with her is like trying to parent a belligerent A-list celebrity high on cocaine.
But if you’re not in my family, that’s none of your business!
Similarly, for some unknowable reason — and despite my zero familial claims on the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences — I get really defensive when people hate on the Oscars. Like, leave the celebrities and my parents’ bichon frisé ALONE!
And people LOVE to hate on the Oscars.
I get it! On some level, the Oscars are just a bunch of upper-class, out-of-touch millionaire artistes giving each other golden statues and ranking what should be, arguably, unrankable [i.e., art]. The Oscars also seem to resist becoming more watchable to us plebeians. The Grammys adapted. The Oscars said: “How about we remove everything you love!!” [By which I mean they stopped showing clips of the movies, which was the best part.]
But the Oscars, to me, are more than that. They are pomp and circumstance, yes, but also a shared experience we can all tap into. Monoculture is over, but of the few vestiges left to us, the Oscars are a gilded, glittering one — and much more fun to talk about than the price of eggs. The Oscars are the Olympics of movies.
In Michael Schulman’s definitive chronicle of Oscars’ history, “Oscar Wars: A History of Hollywood in Gold, Sweat, and Tears,” he says:
“The Oscars are a battlefield where cultural forces collide and where the victors aren’t always as clear as the names drawn from the envelopes… An aesthetic sea change that sets the tone for a decade might be buried in the screenplay noominations. A political upheaval might be a whisper one year, a roar the next… Caught in the cross fire are people: their thwarted ambitions, their artistic epiphanies, their messy collaborations, their dreams fulfilled or dashed.”
The discussion around the Oscars, more even than the final awards given, becomes a little bit like cultural alchemy. Which films have their fingers on the pulse? How far off-base will the winner be? What conversation will seem so important now only to be instantly forgotten [Anne Hathaway and James Franco flop], and what will unexpectedly become the next cultural touchstone [“The Slap”]? Are we in a Green Book year [derogatory] or a Moonlight year [complimentary]?
Plus, there are really, really pretty clothes. <3
So, let’s get excited about it, folks: Who you got!? Who do you HOPE wins, and who do you EXPECT to win? Feel free to tell me your picks for every category!
What I’m Most Excited for at the Oscars on Sunday
Red Carpet: 6:30 p.m. ET | Live Show: 7 p.m. ET | Channel: ABC, Hulu
Conan O’Brien is hosting! He has never hosted the Oscars. Unlike some older-generation comedians *cough*DaveChappelleandJerrySeinfeld*cough*, Conan seems not to have sunk into the “Back in MY day, comedy was funny!” b***s***.
Amelia Dimoldenberg hits the red carpet interviews again! I wrote about her event of the century with Andrew Garfield, but she has long been a fantastic interviewer on YouTube. She's famous for her dry, sarcastic, awkward, negging flirtatiousness, a breath of fresh air from the typical fawning interview style on the carpet. [No judgment here: Fawning is also MY style.]
They are — reportedly — bringing back CLIPS! For the past few years, they eschewed film clips to introduce the nominees, which made for a bizarre experience that felt like going to someone’s birthday party and the birthday-ee not even being there.
What are you most excited for?
Ranking the Best Picture Nominees + Predictions
A note on I’m Still Here NOT being here: I unfortunately never got around to watching I’m Still Here, but one reviewer said: “[I]t’s one of last year’s best films, an emotional epic about the defiant act of living a normal life in a state of oppression.”
Big miss by me, but it was very hard to get your hands on a viewing!
A note on watchability: The Oscars aren’t about watchability, though that’s certainly a factor. Some of these films, like Nickel Boys and The Brutalist, are emotionally devastating and difficult but artistically worthy of cultural praise. Others may be less complex but more enjoyable.
Here’s a quick ranking — including two that weren’t nominated for Best Picture, but I wish they were — based on just having a fun time at the movies.
Personal-Enjoyment Ranking:
Wicked
Sing Sing
Dune: Part 2
Conclave
The Substance
Anora
A Real Pain
A Complete Unknown
The Brutalist
Nickel Boys
*a thousand levels*
Emilia Perez
OK, but in terms of “Best Picture” quality, here are nine of the 10 the Best Picture nominees, ranked in ascending order of MY opinion of their worthiness:
9. Emilia Pérez (Netflix)
13 Nominations: Best Picture, Best Actress (Karla Sofía Gascón), Best Supporting Actress (Zoe Saldaña), Cinematography, Best Director, Editing, International Feature Film, Makeup and Hairstyling, Music (Original Score), Music (Original Song - two), Sound, Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Review in 60 words: This is a real “the emperor French filmmaker has no clothes” situation! It stereotypes and dramatizes so wildly that it manages to be offensive to Mexicans, trans people, opera, telenovelas, Spanish speakers, the formerly-held belief that Selena Gomez can speak Spanish, movie viewers, musicians, et. al. Oh, and it’s almost unwatchable??
Outlook: Zoe Saldaña will likely win her category, perhaps deservedly since she really did carry the film on her back, which is impressive considering what an absolute DEAD WEIGHT it was.
8. A Complete Unknown (on demand)
8 Nominations: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor (Timothée Chalamet), Best Supporting Actor (Edward Norton), Best Supporting Actress (Monica Barbaro), Costume Design, Sound, Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Review in 60 words: It was better than I expected, and I actually felt kind of emotionally radicalized and started listening to Bob Dylan!? A thing I haven’t done in 13 years, probably!? [I’m sure that had nothing to do with … *waves hand toward all of the news*] Overall, it’s a medium-entertaining movie with a memorable performance from Chalamet that clearly took YEARS to develop. The best character was New York City in the 1960s.
Outlook: If Chalamet wins, he’ll beat Adrien Brody not just for the award this year but also as the youngest person to ever snag this award at 29 [Chalamet is a few months younger than Brody was when he won for The Pianist].
7. Dune: Part 2 (HBO Max)
5 Nominations: Best Picture, Best Cinematography, Production Design, Sound, and Visual Effects.
Review in 60 words: THIS IS SPACE OPERA!!!! The second installment of Dune continues brilliantly what the first did: Taking a groundbreaking, world-building novel and making the story and characters even better. It was a bit weak on transitions and character development, but my brain was so transported on spice that I didn’t notice the gaps until later.
Outlook: If that butthole-sandworm-riding scene doesn’t win Visual Effects, what is even the point of movies!?
6. Wicked (on demand)
10 Nominations: Best Picture, Best Actress (Cynthia Erivo), Best Supporting Actress (Ariana Grande), Best Film Editing, Best Production Design, Best Costume Design, Best Makeup and Hair Styling, Best Original Score, Best Sound, Best Visual Effects
Review in 70 words: 15/10!! Cynthia Erivo, with the voice of God herself, reached into her chest cavity and pulled out her bleeding heart for us! Ariana Grande took a bag of complicated character defects, made a potion, and cast us under her spell! Jonathan Bailey made all the straight women realize they would never be satisfied! All while looking like a trillion bucks!
Outlook: It’ll probably win a couple of craft categories like Production Design and Costume Design. But they already won at the box office. “That’s what the money is for”: Wicked 🤝 Don Draper.
5. The Brutalist (on demand)
10 Nominations: Best Picture, Best Director (Brady Corbet), Best Actor (Adrien Brody), Best Supporting Actor (Guy Pearce), Best Supporting Actress (Felicity Jones), Original Score (Daniel Blumberg), Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Writing (Original Screenplay)
Review in 80 words: This Ben-Hur-length film is a sprawling fable of the unforgiving, humiliating, unending brutality [no pun intended] of the immigrant experience and of making art at the whims of commerce. The acting is astonishing, and the cinematography made me say, “I finally understand brutalist architecture!” But it might be too big; the subtext becomes text and then beats you over the head. I don’t recommend it for a good time [a long time, yes], but I was stunned at the scope of what they accomplished.
Outlook: Adrien Brody should win for this, even if it would be fun for Chalamet. Felicity Jones really should, too, but she won’t. They both turned my spirit into the blob from The Substance. Score and Cinematography, too.
4. Nickel Boys (on demand)
2 Nominations: Best Picture, Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Review in 75 words: Based on the Pulitzer Prize-winning novel by Colson Whitehead, Nickel Boys follows two Black boys through a horrifically abusive “reform school,” filmed as if through their eyes, an emphatic declaration of their existence. Though the POV technique distanced me more than drew me in, I was profoundly impacted and left heavy, wanting a better world. I immediately went out and bought the book, which I also highly recommend. [Watch this space: Brandon Wilson’s career; so charming!!]
Outlook: I hope this wins in Writing since it is extremely unlikely to win Best Picture. [Also unlikely to win Writing.] The director, RaMell Ross, really did something new here with the POV, and I’d love to see that rewarded.
3. The Substance (on Mubi)
5 Nominations: Best Picture, Best Actress (Demi Moore), Best Director (Coralie Fargeat), Makeup and Hairstyling, Writing (Original Screenplay)
Review in 60 words: BIASED VOTE! PERSONAL FAVE! A TROMA-tributing, Dorian Gray-adjacent, blood-splatter RIDE of a film about the female body, beauty standards, aging, self-hatred, and human value. I told Ben, “This is what I wanted from Barbie!” It’s parody and farce, hilarious and gruesome and, to many viewers, a squelch or two over-the-top. [It’s NOT for everyone. There’s a lot of nudity and fluids.]
Outlook: Please let Demi win Best Actress! This movie is so singular and her performance is ALL IN. It’s probably between Demi and Mikey Madison for Anora….
2. Anora (on demand)
6 Nominations: Best Picture, Best Actress (Mikey Madison), Best Director (Sean Baker), Best Supporting Actor (Yura Borisov), Editing, Writing (Original Screenplay)
Review in 80 words: Anora is a film in three distinct parts. I watched the first 45 minutes and went to bed like, “THIS???” Then I finished it the next day and was like, “THIS!!!!!” It’s pulsating with life and beautifully filmed, and I found it surprisingly hilarious and heartbreaking. [A warning for anyone who doesn’t like explicit material: At the risk of sounding like the mom on my sixth-grade art museum tour who called Michelangelo’s David “pornographic” … the first 45 minutes are pornographic.]
Outlook: Sean Baker specializes in films that humanize the people who fall through society’s cracks, and this might be his best. I’m guessing it wins Best Director and Writing (Original Screenplay). It’s the odds favorite to win Best Picture, and I’ll probably pick it for my ballot, but I’m torn between this and being contrarian and picking Conclave...
1. Conclave (Peacock)
8 Nominations: Best Picture, Best Actor (Ralph Fiennes), Best Supporting Actress (Isabella Rossellini), Best Adapted Screenplay (Peter Straughan), Film Editing, Production Design, Costume Design, Original Score
Review in 60 words: This movie is a powerful challenge to any religious message not grounded in love. One Ralph Fiennes speech turned me into a church lady waving my hand in the air and humming! That holds true, and yet Conclave is also just a fun, eminently watchable, gorgeous airplane movie about coworkers being bitchy little gossips.
Outlook: This movie feels less exciting than Anora winning Best Picture, like more “establishment,” but I really found it crackling. It will probably lose to Anora.
2 More Movies I Wish Were Up for Best Picture
These movies were nominated in other major categories but not Best Picture. They were two of my favorites of last year.
Sing Sing (on demand)
3 Nominations: Best Actor for Colman Domingo, Writing (Adapted Screenplay), Music (Original Song)
Review in 60 words: Sing Sing make my heart sing-sing! [Wow, I hate myself.] It follows a group of inmates who are part of a “Rehabilitation Through the Arts” program, and is written and performed by many of those former inmates themselves. Are you crying yet, because I certainly was! A movie you spend on the verge of tears and leave feeling your soul full of light.
Outlook: Colman Domingo is incandescent in this. I want him to win!! Plus, this man is holding down every red carpet! But it’s unlikely.
A Real Pain (Hulu)
2 Nominations: Best Supporting Actor (Kieran Culkin), Writing (Original Screenplay by Jesse Eisenberg)
Review in 50 words: Written by Jesse Eisenberg, this story of two cousins (Eisenberg and Kieran Culkin) trying to reconnect while on a Holocaust tour is alternately hilarious, tender, and panic-inducing. Their frictiony chemistry feels so true and lived-in, so painfully real [title of film!]. I laughed and cringed and cried.
Outlook: Kieran Culkin seems to have Best Supporting Actor locked. He’s swept all the awards this year and should win this; but I’m irked he didn’t get nominated in the Best Actor category as he’s as much the main character as Eisenberg. So it’s kind of a cheat that they got him in this category. I would love to see Jeremy Strong win for his unhinged, spray-tanned, very gay performance in The Apprentice.1
My Oscars Ballot
Courtesy of The New York Times!
You made it to the end! Congratulations! You should receive a golden statue! I’d love to hear what movies you loved the most from this crop of nominees: Your predictions and your hopes and dreams. Thanks for reading!
[The point of THAT film is that Strong is playing a more recognizable Trump character than Sebastian Stan, who is playing a young Trump who evolves to become like Strong. Ya follow?]
Finally saw Conclave on the plane the other day. Absolutely should have won Best Picture (though I enjoyed Wicked and Smile 2 more).
WOOHOOOOO!!! So glad I’m all caught up on the need-to-know and the Hannah-thinks-this before tomorrow!!